On NATO’s Edge: The Baltic States and European Defense
NATO troops, flying the NATO and member countries’ flags, march in Lithuania. E. Ovčarenko via BNS.
By Abby Poprocki ‘28
Bordering Russia on the Northeastern edge of Europe, the Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—stand in a precarious position between East and West. Since gaining their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, these three nations have strongly aligned themselves with Western institutions, ultimately joining NATO in 2004. Despite their small size, the strategic location of the Baltics has made them crucial NATO members and some of the greatest advocates of NATO military buildup and preparedness. Now, as the war in Ukraine rages on, the Baltics are increasingly influential in formulating NATO’s strategy and safeguarding Europe from Russian expansion.
A Brief History of the Baltics
The Baltics’ history is deeply intertwined with that of Russia. From 1700 onward, the three states were members of the Russian Empire. At the end of World War I, they successfully declared their independence and enjoyed a brief period of interwar peace and economic expansion before being annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940. Despite continuous armed resistance, the Baltics suffered at the hands of both the Soviets and the Germans throughout World War II. Beginning in 1941, the Soviet government conducted mass deportations of Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians to labor camps in Siberia and the Arctic. The German invasion in 1941 was consequently hailed as a liberation force until the mass murder of the Baltics’ Jewish population began and the rest of the population was sectioned into ghettos and denied any political independence. The German occupation lasted until 1944, when the Soviets reconquered the Baltics and instituted communist reforms.
The Baltics remained part of the Soviet Union throughout the Cold War until Mikhail Gorbachev was elected president in 1985. Gorbachev’s reforms, which encouraged greater openness and free expression within the Soviet Union, spurred mass independence movements in the Baltic states which were subsequently recognized by the Soviet government. When Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania officially gained their independence in September 1991, they were immediately admitted to the UN and began a rapid process of democratization and economic reform that culminated in their admittance to NATO and the European Union a little over a decade later.
NATO and the Baltic States
The geopolitical situation of the Baltics is both an asset and a liability for the NATO alliance. On one hand, the Baltics are a direct frontline defense against Russia, forming part of an eastern wall committed to preventing Russian encroachment. On the other hand, this location places the Baltics in a highly vulnerable position. The only land-based connection between the Baltics and another NATO state, Poland, is the Suwalki Gap, a roughly 60 mile long strip of land that represents a strategic chokepoint for NATO. If Russia were to seize the Suwalki Gap, the Baltics would be severed from the rest of NATO, fully surrounded by Russia, the heavily militarized Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and Belarus, a Russian ally.
After Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea, NATO took on a “tripwire” approach to Baltic security. Small units consisting of soldiers from multiple NATO allies were deployed to each of the Baltic states and Poland. The intent was not to prevent an invasion, but to ensure that if Russian forces attacked, they would be expelled by a large-scale alliance response. The plan envisioned that the Baltics would be overtaken by Russia, then retaken by NATO 180 days later. Since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, however, this approach has become altogether unacceptable for the Baltic states, forcing NATO to reexamine its approach to Baltic defense.
Ukraine and the Russian Threat
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania already commit high proportions of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense spending compared to the rest of the NATO alliance, spending 3.43%, 3.15%, and 2.85% respectively. Despite this, in light of the ongoing war, all three states recently pledged to increase their defense spending to over 5% of their GDP to prepare for the possibility of conflict with Russia. Moreover, the three states have begun building up and training volunteer armies. Latvia additionally reinstituted military conscription in 2023. Baltic leaders are urging NATO to increase its rate of military buildup and prepare for the real threat of a Russian attack on NATO soil, which would trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty and force all alliance members to come to the aid of the Baltics. The Baltic states are consequently modifying their approach, deviating from the previous “tripwire” strategy to one of “deterrence by denial,” which aims to strengthen defenses in order to deter Russian aggression.
Additionally, the Baltics have proven themselves to be among Ukraine’s strongest supporters. Each state has committed over 1% of its GDP to Ukraine and is collaborating on cyber and drone-defense initiatives in the hopes of curbing Russia’s imperialist dreams. Moreover, the Baltics have been lobbying for increased NATO support of Ukraine and even advocating for Ukrainian membership in the alliance. Viewing Ukrainian security as an extension of their own, the Baltics are adamant that NATO needs to step up its security commitments to Ukraine and re-affirm its solidarity to deter further Russian violations of territorial integrity.
As the war in Ukraine reached its three-year mark in February, few states were more alarmed by US President Donald Trump’s attempts at peace negotiations than the Baltics. Baltic leaders have argued that capitulating to Russian demands would only perpetuate the Kremlin’s expansionist goals.
While it remains unclear if Russia will ever attempt to invade one of the three Baltic states, it is obvious that their position in NATO is more important now than it has ever been. Given the risk to their sovereignty, the Baltics have refused to blindly accept NATO’s strategies and instead have emerged as leading voices and strong advocates of greater unity, Ukrainian defense, and military preparedness within the alliance. One cannot overlook the role of these small but proud nations in Europe’s defense against the existential Russian threat.